📈 Amazon's Bear Market Surrender

Good Morning…

When Amazon's stock plunged more than 10% after earnings, the bears finally got their long-awaited moment to declare victory—only to discover that panic selling, like most emotional market reactions, tends to exhaust itself quickly.

Here's why the technical bounce off $220 suggests opportunity, not caution.

🔎 Market Trends → Dow ends higher after UnitedHealth gains, other indexes slip

🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → Navigating Economic Signals: The Fed’s Next Move and Consumer Trends

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, August 18, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open 

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Futures Point Higher as Bulls Tighten Their Grip

The Dow gained 1.7% last week, the S&P 500 rose 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.8%—marking back-to-back winning weeks. Futures ticked higher Sunday: Dow +0.09%, S&P 500 +0.11%, Nasdaq 100 +0.18%.

The Big Picture:

Wall Street isn’t waiting for the Fed—it’s already betting on lower rates. Futures markets put the odds of a September rate cut at 85% (CME FedWatch). That optimism powered equities to their fourth weekly gain in five.

Small caps surged more than 3%, a classic sign of investors rotating into risk and betting that rate-sensitive businesses will benefit first. Oil stayed steady, a gift for both consumers and margins.

Even more telling: the S&P 500 Equal Weight Consumer Discretionary Index hit a record high, signaling that America’s shoppers—and the companies serving them—aren’t as fragile as tariff chatter suggests.

Market Movers:

• Retailers get the spotlight this week. Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT) are set to report, and strong prints could reinforce the “resilient consumer” thesis.

• Applied pessimism. Bears betting on stagflation are running into data that suggest demand is intact.

• Earnings Season Scorecard: With 92% of S&P 500 companies reported, 82% beat expectations (FactSet)—a hit rate no bull can ignore.

What They’re Saying:

“With the market’s message quite upbeat … it raises the question of whether the conventional wisdom about a weakening U.S. consumer and potential stagflation is missing the mark.” — Ross Mayfield, Baird Private Wealth

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• There are no events scheduled for today.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Palo Alto Networks, HIVE Digital Technologies

• Tomorrow: The Home Depot, La-Z-Boy, Medtronic, James Hardie, Opera

MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News 

Amazon's Post-Earnings Tantrum Ends With Buying Opportunity

Why it matters:

The e-commerce giant's 10% correction after Q2 earnings has stalled at technical support, suggesting the market's emotional reaction may have run its course.

Zoom Out:

When Amazon (AMZN) tumbled after July earnings despite beating estimates, it reminded us why Mr. Market remains bipolar after all these years. The 45% rally since April had stretched valuations, making any guidance disappointment an excuse for profit-taking.

Yet here's what the panic sellers missed: Amazon's $220 floor has held firm through multiple tests. This isn't coincidence—it's institutional buyers recognizing value. The initial selling was swift and brutal, but the subsequent consolidation suggests smart money is accumulating.

History teaches us that guidance-driven selloffs in fundamentally sound companies often create the best entry points for patient investors.

Key Insights:

• Technical resilience: Multiple failed attempts to break below $220 signal strong institutional support, with analysts maintaining 49 buy ratings and price targets reaching $305

• Diversified dominance: Amazon controls 38% of U.S. e-commerce, 30% of cloud computing, and 17% of digital advertising—three massive moats that competitors struggle to breach

• AI infrastructure play: The company's $118 billion capex commitment positions it for the estimated $2 trillion AI cloud opportunity through 2030

Market Pulse:

The bears had their moment, but they couldn't finish the job. That's usually when you want to be a buyer, not a seller." —Wall Street technician

Bull’s Take:

Amazon's correction looks more like healthy profit-taking than fundamental deterioration. With a 34x P/E ratio below many tech peers and dominant positions across multiple growth markets, patient investors should view this dip as a gift from Mr. Market's latest mood swing.

Market Stories of Note

China's Grid Gives It AI's Winning Hand:

America's aging electrical infrastructure is becoming the hidden bottleneck that could determine who wins the artificial intelligence race, as U.S. tech companies scramble to build their own power plants rather than rely on fragile local grids while Chinese firms treat abundant electricity as a solved problem. Energy expert David Fishman bluntly assessed the competitive landscape: China is "set up to hit grand slams" while "the U.S., at best, can get on base"—a disparity rooted in Beijing's centralized energy planning versus America's fragmented system of private investors seeking three-to-five-year returns on decade-long infrastructure projects. Smart money should consider that McKinsey projects $6.7 trillion in global data center investments by 2030, creating massive opportunities for companies that can navigate power constraints—making utility stocks and energy infrastructure plays increasingly attractive as the AI boom collides with electrical reality.

When Earnings Speak Louder Than Fear:

Corporate America's latest quarterly results are providing much-needed relief to investors fretting about economic headwinds, as S&P 500 profits surged 12% in the second quarter—more than double the 5% growth analysts predicted just weeks earlier. The earnings beats reveal that well-managed companies continue generating robust cash flows despite macro uncertainties, while mentions of "recession" on earnings calls have plummeted 84%, suggesting that executive confidence is returning faster than Wall Street's worry machine can manufacture new anxieties. Smart money recognizes that when solid fundamentals meet previously lowered expectations, the combination often creates precisely the kind of opportunities that patient investors should embrace—even if stocks now trade at 22.5 times forward earnings, reminding us that the market rarely offers bargains without extracting a premium for optimism.

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed 

Headlines

• Bitcoin Steadies at $118K as Analysts Flag Deeper Pullback Risks and Altcoin Rotation (link)

• Google involved in BTC miner TeraWulf’s ‘standout’ hosting deal (link)

• Galaxy closes $1.4 billion debt facility to retrofit its Helios bitcoin mining center for CoreWeave AI deal (link)