📈 Amazon's Prime Position

Shopify CEO critical of Canada's tariff response, Stellantis losing 2 executives, TSMC shares slump, JP Morgan plans $4B gold delivery, Amazon's UPS breakup signals strength

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Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Shopify CEO critical of Canada's tariff response, Stellantis losing 2 executives, TSMC shares slump, JP Morgan plans $4B gold delivery, Amazon's UPS breakup signals strength

🔎 Market Trends → Fed's Goolsbee comforted by latest inflation data, worried about tariffs; Dow futures drop more than 450 points after Trump hits U.S. trading partners with tariffs

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, February 3, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

As of market close 01/31/2025.

Pre-Market

  • Atlassian shares surged nearly 15%, the best performer on the Nasdaq.

  • Deckers Outdoor shares sank nearly 21%, the worst performer on the S&P 500.

Fear & Greed

 

Markets in Review

Markets Stumble as Tariff Risks Resurface

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.8% to 44,544.7, while the S&P 500 lost 0.5% to 6,040.5. The Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.3% to 19,627.4. Energy led the decline, while consumer discretionary and communication services were the only gainers.

The Big Picture:

Markets took a breather after January’s strong rally, as traders braced for potential tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The White House confirmed plans for 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, and 10% on China, citing concerns over fentanyl trafficking.

Consumer spending remained strong, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will stay on hold in the coming months. Meanwhile, inflation data showed little movement, keeping policymakers cautious about any aggressive rate cuts.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil gained 1.3%, settling at $73.66 a barrel. Gold dipped 0.4% to $2,833.50 per troy ounce, while silver slid 0.7% to $32.26.

Market Movers:

  • Atlassian (TEAM): Soared 15%, the best performer on the Nasdaq, after raising its revenue outlook following a strong Q2 earnings beat.

  • AbbVie (ABBV): Gained 4.7%, among the top S&P 500 performers, as robust Skyrizi and Rinvoq sales led to an upgraded long-term revenue forecast.

  • Deckers Outdoor (DECK): Plunged 21%, the worst S&P 500 performer, after its fiscal 2025 sales guidance underwhelmed investors.

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA): Sank 10%, after the company suspended its quarterly dividend, sparking investor concerns over cash flow.

What They’re Saying:

"Despite tamer price and wage figures, robust consumer spending and uncertain trade policies will likely keep the Fed sidelined in the months ahead," BMO Capital Markets wrote in a note.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

  • Today: Institute for Supply Management - Manufacturing ISM Report On Business - 10:00am

  • Why You Should Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

Earnings Reports

  • Today: Palantir, NXP Semiconductors, Tyson Foods, The Clorox Company, IDEXX, BellRing Brands

  • Tomorrow: Alphabet Inc., Toyota, PepsiCo, Spotify, Ferrari, PayPal, Chipotle, Mondelez, Merck, AMD, Pfizer

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Amazon's Delivery Divorce: Why Wall Street is Shrugging Off the UPS Breakup

Why it matters:

Amazon's stock ($AMZN) hitting fresh all-time highs despite UPS cutting delivery ties signals the e-commerce giant's growing logistics dominance and evolving business model.

Zoom Out:

Wall Street's collective wisdom sometimes gets things exactly right. When UPS announced it would slash Amazon deliveries by more than half, the market barely blinked – and for good reason. Amazon has quietly built a $160 billion logistics empire since 2020, transforming from a customer of delivery services into their most formidable competitor.

The company's stock chart tells a story that would make Benjamin Graham proud: a textbook "breakout" pattern suggesting institutional investors are betting big on Amazon's next chapter. With back-to-back record weekly closes, the technical picture aligns perfectly with the fundamental narrative.

Key Insights:

  • Amazon now handles 70% of its own deliveries domestically, making the UPS news more of a planned farewell than a sudden divorce

  • The stock's 33.2% surge over five months reflects Wall Street's growing appreciation of Amazon's vertical integration strategy

  • Key support levels at $220 (50-day moving average) provide a safety net for investors looking to "buy the dip"

Market Pulse:

"Over the coming months, [Amazon's stock] should continue to retrace the underperformance endured between 2020 and 2023" - Ari Wald, Oppenheimer technical analyst

Bull’s Take:

Amazon's evolution from e-commerce pioneer to logistics powerhouse demonstrates why patient investors are often rewarded for thinking in decades, not quarters. For those keeping score at home: When FedEx ended its Amazon partnership in 2019, the stock went up. History suggests this time won't be different.

Headlines

  • Amazon, Uber, Disney, PayPal, Alphabet, and Many More Stocks to Watch This Week (link)

  • TSMC Shares Slump on Return From Holiday After DeepSeek Jolt (link)

  • Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke criticizes Canada's response to US tariffs (link)

  • Stellantis' software, Peugeot chiefs leaving posts (link)

  • Nvidia's 17% Plunge Exposed One of the Greatest Risks in the Stock Market (link)

  • JPMorgan plans $4 billion US gold delivery amid tariff fears (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

 

Headlines

  • Bitcoin slides below $100,000 as tariffs rattle markets (link)

  • MicroStrategy sees strong demand for preferred stock plan, raises $563.4 million to fuel more bitcoin purchases (link)

  • Stablecoin Market Surges Past $200B, Signaling Potential Crypto Price Upswing (link)

DAILY SHARE
On the Socials

*Hat-tip to ConsultingHumor

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