📈 Apple's Upgrade Cycle Actually Works

Good Morning…

The pundits declared the smartphone upgrade cycle dead—but Apple just proved that consumers will gladly open their wallets when you give them something genuinely worth buying.

The iPhone 17's 14% sales surge over its predecessor in the US and China isn't just a win for Apple shareholders; it's a masterclass in how real innovation, not marketing gimmicks, still drives consumer behavior in ways that should make value investors pay attention.

🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street ends higher as investors digest Trump trade comments

🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → [WATCH] Gold’s Ascent: Why Investors Are Turning to Precious Metals

And now…

⏱️ Your daily briefing for Monday, October 20, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Markets Gear Up: Earnings Season Could Turn Volatility into Opportunity

U.S. stock futures ticked higher Sunday night — Dow +0.2%, S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq 100 +0.3% — as investors braced for a blockbuster earnings week and fresh inflation data.

The Big Picture:

After a rollercoaster week of trade tensions, regional bank jitters, and AI-stock selloffs, Wall Street looks ready to climb again. The third-quarter earnings season is injecting optimism back into markets, with analysts expecting S&P 500 profits to rise 8.4% year-over-year, and possibly over 13% if historical beats hold.

A softer tone from Washington is helping. Reports suggest President Trump may roll back tariffs on select imports, signaling a thaw in the U.S.–China trade chill. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent added that “things have de-escalated,” easing fears of a 100% tariff hike looming in November.

Meanwhile, investors are eyeing the Federal Reserve’s late-October meeting, widely expected to bring a 0.25% rate cut — another tailwind for risk assets. Oil prices hovered near $83 a barrel, and the VIX volatility index cooled from above 28 to under 21 as calm returned to trading floors.

Market Movers:

• Big Earnings on Deck: Heavyweights including Netflix (NFLX), Coca-Cola (KO), Tesla (TSLA), and Intel (INTC) report this week. Their results will test whether corporate America can sustain growth amid stubborn inflation.

• Regional banks like Zions (ZION) and Western Alliance (WAL) rebounded after last week’s credit scare, while AI names cooled after months of froth. Expect renewed rotation into defensive sectors if earnings disappoint.

• Macro Watch: The September CPI lands Friday — the first major data point since the government shutdown disrupted reporting. Inflation still “hot” could weigh on the Fed’s dovish lean.

What They’re Saying:

“The dispute presents significant economic risks to both sides, so the stakes are high to reach some sort of a palatable compromise.” — Katie Nixon, CIO, Northern Trust

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

There are no events scheduled for today.

Earnings Reports

• Today: There are no noteworthy companies for this day.

• Tomorrow: Netflix, GE Aerospace, Coca-Cola, Philip Morris, RTX, Capital One, Lockheed Martin, 3M, General Motors, Nasdaq

MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News 

Apple's iPhone 17 Surge: The Upgrade Cycle Lives

Why it matters:

The 14% sales jump over iPhone 16 in Apple's (AAPL) two largest markets suggests the much-debated smartphone upgrade cycle isn't dead—it's just selective.

Zoom Out:

The standard $799 iPhone 17 is driving unexpected demand in the US and China during its first 10 days, outpacing last year's model by double digits. This isn't the usual Pro model dominance story. Counterpoint Research pins the success on tangible improvements: better display, more storage, and the A19 chip upgrade.

BofA Securities holds its $270 price target, citing stable shipping times for Pro models—a Goldilocks scenario where demand stays strong without spiraling into supply chaos. The real catalyst? Apple's positioning as the "eventual winner on AI at the edge," running inference models directly on device rather than the cloud.

Here's what investors fixated on Services revenue may be missing: hardware momentum still matters when it refreshes the installed base.

Key Insights:

• The base model bet: Consumers voting with wallets for the entry-level iPhone 17 signals rational price sensitivity—they'll upgrade when value proposition improves, not just because it's "new." This bodes well for sustained demand through the holiday quarter.

• AI at the edge advantage: On-device AI processing gives Apple a privacy moat competitors can't easily replicate, especially as regulatory scrutiny on data handling intensifies. Think of it as compound interest for the ecosystem.

• Shipping time stability: Pro models averaging 13-20 day lead times globally without explosive extension suggests Apple nailed supply chain execution—a skill worth more than hype.

Market Pulse:

"Strong capital returns, eventual winner on AI at the edge and optionality from new products/markets." — BofA Securities analyst on maintaining Buy rating

Bull’s Take:

The upgrade cycle isn't broken—it's evolved. When Apple delivers meaningful hardware improvements paired with exclusive AI capabilities, consumers respond. That $270 target looks conservative if this momentum holds through March.

Market Stories of Note

Nvidia's Arizona Moment - Chips Come Home:

Nvidia (NVDA) and TSMC just produced the first Blackwell AI chip wafer on American soil at the Phoenix fab—a milestone signaling volume production has begun and advanced semiconductor manufacturing is finally returning stateside. The catch: chips still require Taiwan for final packaging, meaning this remains partially symbolic for now. Still, for patient Nvidia shareholders, domestic production of the world's most sought-after AI accelerator isn't just flag-waving—it's a strategic hedge that de-risks supply chains in an increasingly fragmented global economy.

Kering Exits Beauty - When Retreating Is Smart:

Kering's decision to sell its struggling beauty division to L'Oreal for $4.7 billion—roughly what it paid for Creed two years ago—shows that cutting losses beats defending mistakes when you're drowning in $9.5 billion of net debt. L'Oreal gains 50-year exclusive licenses to develop fragrances for Gucci, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, instantly making it a powerhouse in luxury beauty while Kering refocuses on fashion brands that actually generate profits instead of 60-million-euro losses. Sometimes the best investment decision isn't what you buy—it's knowing when to admit you overpaid and move on before the hole gets deeper.

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed 

Headlines

• Bitcoin Tumbles Below $109K; Tightening Liquidity Key to Crypto's Struggles (link)

• OpenSea Confirms Q1 Launch for SEA Token With Half of Supply Allocated to Community (link)

• Ripple Labs leads $1 billion raise for new XRP treasury: Bloomberg (link)