📈 Bankers Rake In, Brace Out

Good Morning…

Wall Street's biggest banks are about to report earnings that would make Midas jealous—yet their own CEOs are quietly backing toward the fire exits.

Here's the curious paradox keeping savvy investors awake: the same executives collecting record fees from a seven-quarter dealmaking streak are warning that a market correction could arrive before your next tax return is due.

🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street ends sharply lower as Trump renews China tariff threats

🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → [WATCH] Kevin O’Leary on Alts: Crypto, Collectibles and Gold

And now…

⏱️ Your daily briefing for Monday, October 13, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Tariff Shock, Not Trend: Why Friday’s Flush Looks Like a Buyable Jolt

Dow −878 (1.9%) to 45,480 • S&P 500 −2.71% to 6,552 • Nasdaq −3.56% to 22,204. VIX popped above 22 as hedging demand spiked.

The Big Picture:

President Trump floated “massive” new tariffs on China, citing rare-earth restrictions. Algorithms hit “sell,” but this looks like policy volatility, not earnings decay. The tape flipped from morning highs to a late-day downdraft—classic position-squaring into a headline.

Tech bore the brunt as the market repriced China exposure and capex paybacks. That doesn’t erase the secular AI buildout; it just stretches the runway for leaders with pricing power and real workloads.

Commodities offered a tell: WTI eased on growth worries, a quiet positive for transports and staples. Meanwhile, U.S. rare-earth names ripped on security-of-supply hopes—an early sketch of a domestic supply-chain trade.

Market Movers:

• MP Materials (MP), USA Rare Earth: jumped as Beijing tightened export controls; investors bet on onshoring and DoD tailwinds.

• Defensives (XLP, XLU): bid as duration and quality served as ballast while cyclicals reset.

• Mega-cap AI complex — Nvidia (NVDA), AMD (AMD), Tesla (TSLA): sold on China risk + capex ROI angst; nothing in today’s headlines changes data-center demand curves, but multiples got a reality check.

• China ADRs — Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU): tariff overhang revived policy risk.

What They’re Saying:

“We believe the current bull market remains intact… this decade’s technological surge will trigger irreversible developments.” — UBS’s Burkhard Varnholt

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

There are no events scheduled for today.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Fastenal Company

• Tomorrow: J P Morgan Chase & Co, Johnson & Johnson, Wells Fargo & Company, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The), BlackRock, Inc, Citigroup Inc., Ericsson, Domino's Pizza Inc

MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News 

Bank Earnings: The Goldilocks Quarter Wall Street Needed

Why it matters:

America's banking titans are proving that higher rates and M&A mania create a profit cocktail that's hard to beat—with Q3 earnings expected up 6% year-over-year across the Big Six.

Zoom Out:

The dealmaking drought has ended. After tariff uncertainty froze corporate America this spring, global M&A volume has roared past $1 trillion, IPOs are resurfacing, and trading desks are humming. JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), and Morgan Stanley (MS) kick off earnings Tuesday and Wednesday.

Investment banking and trading revenues are projected to climb for a seventh straight quarter for most players. Markets at all-time highs, geopolitical volatility, and currency swings have created what Barclays analyst Jason Goldberg calls "a very active" environment. Bank stocks have crushed it—Citi and Goldman up 23-40% year-to-date, outpacing the S&P 500 by double digits.

Even rising compensation costs are "good expenses"—a sign that fee-driven businesses are firing on all cylinders. The consumer remains resilient, according to Capital One's CEO, and regulatory winds appear friendlier.

Key Insights:

• Fee machines firing: Investment banking and trading have now grown for seven consecutive quarters, driven by volatile markets that require corporate hedging and restructuring. When currencies swing and rates move, banks collect tolls on both sides of every transaction.

• The warning from the corner office: Jamie Dimon says he's "far more worried than others" about a correction, while Goldman's David Solomon expects potential equity drawdowns within 12-24 months. History suggests listening when bankers making record fees start hedging their bets.

• Credit cracks emerging: Two auto-industry bankruptcies (Tricolor, First Brands) exposed $715 million in Jefferies (JEF) exposure to opaque non-bank lending. The credit environment remains "fairly benign," but remember: defaults always look isolated until suddenly they don't.

Market Pulse:

"I still very much feel that the consumer is an anchor of strength in our current economy," Capital One CEO Richard Fairbank told investors—the kind of confidence that fuels bank lending but also precedes every credit cycle turn.

Bull’s Take:

Bank earnings should deliver this quarter, but the smartest people in the room are already eyeing the exits. Enjoy the profits, but don't confuse a favorable quarter with a permanent goldmine.

Market Stories of Note

Hollywood's Bidding War: Warner Bros. Says Not Enough:

Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) just told Paramount's David Ellison that his $20-per-share takeover bid isn't nearly rich enough—a rejection that matters because it signals CEO David Zaslav believes his streaming-and-studios empire is worth significantly more, potentially setting up a bidding war that could reshape Hollywood's competitive landscape. Ellison, fresh off his $8 billion Skydance Media merger and reportedly courting Apollo Global Management for financing firepower, now faces the classic M&A dilemma: sweeten the offer, go hostile directly to shareholders, or walk away from what could be the decade's defining media consolidation play. For investors watching from the sidelines, this poker game reveals that legacy media assets—despite cord-cutting headwinds—still command premium valuations when the right buyer comes calling with serious capital behind them.

Apple's Smart Acqui-Hire Play Gets Smarter:

Apple (AAPL) is closing an acqui-hire deal for computer vision startup Prompt AI's team and technology—a move that matters because it shows how tech giants sidestep regulatory heat while stockpiling AI talent for a fraction of rivals' billion-dollar bets. The deal brings Berkeley AI Research expertise that could enhance Apple's HomeKit platform with sophisticated computer vision capabilities, following the company's classic playbook: acquire small, integrate quietly, build methodically. For investors, this signals Apple is assembling pieces for a smarter home ecosystem rather than chasing headlines—a patient strategy that may ultimately prove wiser than flashier alternatives.

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed 

Headlines

• Bitcoin Soars Beyond $114K, Ethereum Spikes 6% as US-China Tensions Ease (link)

• Galaxy raises $460 million in push to transform Texas bitcoin site into AI data hub (link)

• CipherOwl raises $15 million to advance AI-driven crypto compliance (link)