📈 Carnival's 50% Stock Surge

Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Tesla Robotaxi Austin Launch Boosts Shares, Kroger Closing 60 Stores Nationwide, Compass Sues Zillow Over Listings, Super Micro Falls on Debt, New Stellantis CEO Fights Mediocrity

🔎 Market Trends → Wall St ends higher as Iran doesn't close oil shipping route; US Futures Slip After US Strikes Iran

🚨 Start Your Day with Market Movers: Opening Bell LIVE on FinTech.tv from 9-10AM EST

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Tuesday, June 24, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Markets Rally as Iran's Missiles Miss the Mark—Oil Sinks

S&P 500 +1%, Nasdaq +0.9%, Dow +0.9%. Energy lagged, but consumer discretionary led gains. Oil plunged 8.5% to $67.59 as de-escalation hopes firmed.

The Big Picture:

Investors took a deep breath Monday. Iran’s missile strike—telegraphed in advance—targeted U.S. bases in Qatar and Iraq but caused limited damage, and markets rallied on the perception of a potential turning point toward diplomacy.

Oil's collapse reflects that sentiment. Despite Middle East tensions, the crude market priced in de-escalation over disruption. West Texas Intermediate fell to its lowest since early January, surprising many who expected more upward pressure.

Meanwhile, the bond market firmed, with Treasury yields ticking lower—10-year at 4.34%, 2-year at 3.86%—as rate-cut chatter returned to center stage.

Market Movers:

• Tesla (TSLA) surged 8.2% after launching its Robotaxi service in Texas. Wedbush called early test rides a “game-changer.”

• Super Micro (SMCI) slid 9.8%, announcing a $2B convertible note offering. Investors took profits after the stock’s monster AI-fueled run.

• S&P Global (SPGI) rose 2.1% despite reporting a slowdown in private-sector growth, signaling investors still see it as a solid defensive play.

What They’re Saying:

“Iran’s response may signal a step toward calming the region... markets are reacting to the idea that cooler heads could prevail.” — Claudio Galimberti, Rystad Energy Chief Economist

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Today: Federal Reserve - Fed Chair Powell Testifies - 10:00am

  Why You Should Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy

Earnings Reports

• Today: FedEx, Carnival Cruise Line, BlackBerry Limited

• Tomorrow: Micron Technology, Paychex, General Mills, Levi Strauss & Co., National Beverage Corp., Winnebago Industries

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Carnival's Loyalty Drama Misses the Real Story: A $6.2B Earnings Opportunity

Why it matters:

While passengers threaten mutiny over loyalty changes, CCL's fundamentals suggest Wall Street's sanguine outlook may be justified—and profitable.

Zoom Out:

Carnival's 50% stock surge over the past year reflects more than just post-pandemic recovery euphoria. The company's record Q1 revenue of $5.81 billion beat consensus estimates, signaling that consumer appetite for experiences remains robust despite inflationary headwinds.

The loyalty program kerfuffle—where frequent cruisers lose status based on spending rather than lifetime voyages—has predictably triggered social media outrage. Yet behavioral finance teaches us that customer switching costs in leisure industries are remarkably sticky, particularly when competitors face identical economic pressures.

Tuesday's Q2 earnings (expected: $0.25 EPS on $6.21B revenue) will test whether strong summer bookings can offset operational challenges, including potential fuel cost spikes from Middle East tensions.

Key Insights:

• Debt dynamics improving: Despite leverage concerns, Carnival's operational cash flow has dramatically strengthened, positioning the company to service its pandemic-era debt burden while capitalizing on pent-up travel demand.

• Pricing power intact: The loyalty program changes actually demonstrate rational revenue optimization—a sign management is confident enough in demand to risk short-term customer friction for long-term margin expansion.

• Competitive moats widening: With Celebration Key opening as an exclusive Bahamas destination, Carnival is building differentiated assets that competitors can't easily replicate.

Market Pulse:

"Changes to loyalty programs always rile up the faithful... But few actually go to competitors," notes Zacks' Tracey Ryniec—a reminder that customer inertia often trumps social media sentiment.

Bull’s Take:

Smart money recognizes that temporary loyalty program friction matters far less than sustained consumer spending power and operational leverage. For patient investors, Carnival's combination of debt reduction trajectory and experience economy tailwinds creates a compelling risk-adjusted opportunity at current valuations.

Headlines

• Tesla Rolls Out Robotaxi Service in Austin, Shares Jump (link)

• Grocery Giant Kroger to Close 60 Stores Across US Market (link)

• Compass Sues Zillow Over Alleged Listing Ban Tactics (link)

• Amazon’s Driverless Cab Company Zoox Revs Up ‘Toaster Taxis’ (link)

• Super Micro shares fall on planned $2 billion convertible debt offering (link)

• New Stellantis CEO faces slew of challenges, vows to avoid 'mediocrity' (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• BTC Bounces Back Above $102K After Iranian Strikes on U.S. Bases in the Gulf (link)

• Goldman Sachs and Citadel back crypto firm Digital Asset in $135 million funding round (link)

• Fiserv Surges On Stablecoin Move With Hot IPO Circle Internet (link)

DAILY SHARE
On the Socials