📈 Fork in the road

Powell ready to support job market, Cocoa rally and market tumult hoist systematic hedge funds, Biden signs $1.2 trillion spending package for government funding, Stability AI CEO resigns, and China told it faces ‘fork in the road'...

March 25, 2024

Good morning.

The Fast Five → Powell ready to support job market, Cocoa rally and market tumult hoist systematic hedge funds, Biden signs $1.2 trillion spending package for government funding, Stability AI CEO resigns, and China told it faces ‘fork in the road'…

Calendar:

  • TUE 3/26: Durable-goods orders, 8:30am ET

    • Consumer confidence, 10:00 am ET

  • THU 3/28: Initial jobless claims, 8:30am ET

    • Consumer sentiment, 10:00am ET

  • FRI 3/29: PCE Index, 8:30am ET

    • Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks, 11:30am ET

Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, March 25:

BEFORE THE OPEN

As of market close 3/22/2024. Bitcoin as of 3/24/2024.

PRE-MARKET

MARKETS

  • US stocks ended mixed on Friday but clinched their best week YTD, with the Nasdaq and S&P rising 2.9% and 2.3% respectively

  • Europe's Stoxx 600 paused near record highs after dovish cues from major central banks

  • Swaps traders are pricing in three 25 bps BoE rate cuts by 2024-end to match the Fed

  • Japanese yen traded near multi-decade lows versus the dollar but may see intervention by Japan

  • Argentina's dollar bonds hit record highs, gaining ~60% since Milei's election

EARNINGS

  • What we're watching this week:

    • Tuesday: Gamestop

    • Wednesday: Cintas, Jefferies, MillerKnoll

    • Thursday: Walgreens Boots Alliance

  • Full calendar here

NEWS BRIEFING

Fed chief says ‘unexpected’ weakening could prompt rate cuts. Fed shift is good news for Biden and financial markets.

Systematic hedge funds outperformed wider industry. Those taking the most risk made the most money. Long cocoa positions help lift returns - investors.

  • Biden signs $1.2 trillion spending package for government funding until October (link)

  • How the US economy is doing depends on your politics (link)

  • Oil rises as heightened geopolitical risks exacerbate supply concerns (link)

  • China told it faces 'fork in the road' as officials meet CEOs (link)

    • Chinese Premier downplays economic risks as IMF urges reform (link)

  • Nvidia’s ambitions in medicine and healthcare becoming clear (link)

  • Stability AI CEO resigns because you’re ‘not going to beat centralized AI with more centralized AI’ (link)

  • Goldman’s hedge fund clients are getting active in crypto options (link)

  • US firms' stock purchases via buybacks and M&A will hit 6-year high this year (link)

  • Investors pour into US corporate bond funds at record rate (link)

  • CRE CLOs face unprecedented stress amid real estate pain (link)

  • A banned trader worked ~20 years before regulators caught on (link)

  • A Signa MD is under investigation for fraud (link)

  • Cathie Wood's ARK Invest scooped ~10k Reddit shares (link)

  • Activist investor Politan is planning a second proxy fight for two more seats at Masimo (link)

  • Stanley looks to replicate the water-bottle hype among guys (link)

CRYPTO

  • Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood reiterated her $1.5M price target for Bitcoin (link)

  • Crypto job listings are rebounding (link)

You Can Sponsor this Newsletter details here.​

BULLISH BITES

🌯 Shares for all: Chipotle’s planned 50-to-1 split unites bulls and burrito lovers.

🐰 Holiday squeeze: Easter egg price hikes are just the start as cocoa soars.

🎉 Pro-crypto: Inside Austin’s bitcoin underground.

🎓 Hot mess: It's a chaotic year for college admissions.

DAILY SHARES

Keep the curation going! Buy the team a coffee ☕️