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Micron's Memory Shortage Payday
While the stock has already surged 93% this year, the underlying supply-demand imbalance suggests we're still in the early innings
Evelio Silvera
September 22, 2025
Good Morning…
Memory chip makers haven't enjoyed pricing power like this since the dot-com boom, and Micron's upcoming earnings could reveal whether this scarcity-driven goldmine has staying power through 2026.
🔎 Market Trends → Wall St closes higher with indexes notching weekly gains
🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → [WATCH] Revolut’s Bold Expansion: Glauber Mota on Entering the UAE Market
And now…
⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, September 22, 2025:
MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open
As of market close 09/19/2025.
Pre-Market
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Fear & Greed
Markets in Review
Market Hits New Heights, But the Next Move Is Data-Dependent
The S&P 500 and Dow both closed at record highs last week. Futures opened slightly lower Sunday: Dow -0.11%, S&P 500 -0.13%, Nasdaq 100 -0.15%.
The Big Picture:
The bulls are back in charge — for now.
Last week's rate cut from the Fed — the first since December — was the catalyst investors needed. After initial whiplash, markets interpreted the move as the central bank signaling support in the face of softening labor data.
With equities setting new records, the focus shifts from rate speculation to economic fundamentals. Strong macro data is no longer optional — it's the foundation for the next leg up.
Oil prices edged higher, with WTI crude near $92/barrel, driven by ongoing supply concerns. Gold held steady, a sign that inflation fears remain muted — for now.
Market Movers:
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) +5.8%: The newly merged media giant surged on better-than-expected subscriber growth and analyst upgrades. Investors see upside in streaming synergies and IP monetization.
DexCom (DXCM) −11%: The glucose monitoring firm tumbled after disappointing guidance and concerns over growing competition in the wearable health tech space.
Small-cap rally rolls on: The Russell 2000 rose 2.2%, now riding a seven-week win streak — signaling growing investor confidence in domestic economic resilience.
What They’re Saying:
"Further support for equities will hinge more on robust macro data than more dovishness in rates." — Emmanuel Cau, Barclays
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events
Today: There are no events scheduled for today.
Earnings Reports
Today: Firefly Aerospace, Toro Corp.
Tomorrow: AutoZone, Barnes & Noble Education, PetMed Express
MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News
Micron's Memory Gold Rush: Why Chip Scarcity Could Pay Off
Photo Credit: REUTERS/Aly Song/File Photo
Why it matters:
Memory chip shortages through 2026 are creating a pricing environment that could deliver outsized returns for patient investors willing to ride the AI wave.
Zoom Out:
Micron (MU) reports Q4 earnings Tuesday, with Wall Street expecting 43% revenue growth to $11.12 billion and earnings jumping 138% year-over-year. The stock has already surged 93% in 2025, but the fundamentals suggest this isn't mere speculation.
The memory chip industry is experiencing what economists call "supply inelasticity"—demand is growing faster than production capacity can expand. Deutsche Bank projects this imbalance will persist through 2026, particularly for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips that power AI systems.
This scarcity dynamic historically precedes margin expansion cycles. Deutsche Bank sees a clear path to gross margins exceeding 50%, driven by constrained DRAM supply and premium HBM pricing at 3:1 ratios to standard memory.
Key Insights:
Supply bottleneck advantage: HBM production requires specialized manufacturing that can't be quickly scaled, creating natural barriers to competition
AI infrastructure play: As companies build out data centers for AI workloads, memory becomes the critical constraint—not processing power
Pricing power returns: After years of commodity pricing pressure, memory makers are regaining leverage over customers desperate for capacity
Market Pulse:
"MU remains our top long idea as the memory up-cycle accelerates into FY26" —Hans Mosesmann, Rosenblatt Securities
Bull’s Take:
Options traders are pricing a 10.3% earnings move, but the real story is multi-year margin expansion in a supply-constrained market. For investors comfortable with semiconductor volatility, Micron offers leveraged exposure to the AI infrastructure buildout at reasonable valuations.
Market Stories of Note
Pfizer's $7.3B Obesity Jackpot:
After watching its own weight-loss pill danuglipron crash in clinical trials, Pfizer is betting $7.3 billion that buying Metsera's once-monthly GLP-1 technology will secure its place in the $100 billion obesity market before it becomes prohibitively expensive to enter. The deal structure—$47.50 per share upfront plus another $22.50 tied to milestones—shows Pfizer learned from its own drug development failures by sharing risk with performance incentives rather than paying full freight immediately. With Metsera's lead candidate showing 11.3% weight loss in early trials and dosing convenience that could trump existing weekly injections, this calculated gamble reflects how pharma giants are abandoning in-house R&D for proven biotech assets when entire market categories are at stake.
Nuclear's $10 Trillion Renaissance:
Bank of America's projection of a $10 trillion nuclear industry by 2050 reflects what happens when three unstoppable forces collide: AI's voracious appetite for reliable power, geopolitical concerns over energy security, and the harsh reality that renewables alone can't solve our baseload problem. Small modular reactors represent the first genuinely disruptive nuclear technology in decades—faster to build, cheaper to finance, and designed for an assembly-line world where every month of construction delay costs millions. While uranium miners and SMR developers like NuScale and Oklo have already rewarded early believers with triple-digit gains, the real opportunity lies in understanding that this isn't just another commodity cycle—it's the infrastructure backbone for the next phase of human progress.
CRYPTO
Fear & Greed
