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- 📈 Nvidia's 'Golden Wave'
📈 Nvidia's 'Golden Wave'
Blackstone Bets Big on CRE, Meta Wins AI Copyright Battle, Microsoft Nuclear Deal Accelerates Rapidly, Apple Dodges Massive EU Fine, Salesforce AI Does Half Work
Evelio Silvera
June 27, 2025
Good morning.
⚡ The Fast Five → Blackstone Bets Big on CRE, Meta Wins AI Copyright Battle, Microsoft Nuclear Deal Accelerates Rapidly, Apple Dodges Massive EU Fine, Salesforce AI Does Half Work
🔎 Market Trends → S&P 500, Nasdaq end just shy of record closing highs; US Futures Steady Ahead of PCE Inflation Report
And now…
⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Friday, June 27, 2025:
MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open
As of market close 06/26/2025.
Pre-Market
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Fear & Greed
Markets in Review
Stocks Push Higher as Trump Teases Tariff Extension
S&P 500 +0.8% to 6,141, Nasdaq +1% to 20,167.9, both inches from all-time highs. Dow +0.9%, led by a rally in communication services. Real estate and consumer staples lagged.
The Big Picture:
Wall Street rallied Thursday on signs the White House might extend the suspension of retaliatory tariffs, soothing trade war anxieties. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said a decision on the July 8 deadline “is up to the president,” signaling flexibility as EU negotiations loom.
Yields fell, with the 2-year at 3.73% and 10-year at 4.25%, as investors absorbed weaker-than-expected Q1 GDP revisions and jobless claims data. Economic cracks are showing—but not enough to shake equity momentum just yet.
Oil ticked up 0.8% to $65.44, but without geopolitical fire, crude’s bounce feels mechanical rather than meaningful.
Market Movers:
Acuity Brands (AYI) surged +5.8% after beating Q3 expectations and projecting a “solid” second half, thanks to strong building demand and margin discipline.
McCormick (MKC) jumped +5.3%, defying earnings drop forecasts and maintaining full-year guidance—a bullish signal on consumer pricing power even with tariffs.
Trump’s jabs at Powell continued, with chatter of naming a replacement by fall. Markets may brace for politicization risk, but investors appear more focused on near-term dovishness than 2025 Fed chairs.
What They’re Saying:
“Consumers tightened their wallets a lot more than initially anticipated… as tariff uncertainty weighed.”— BMO Capital Markets
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events
Today: Bureau of Economic Analysis - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index m/m - 8:30am
Why You Should Care: It's the Federal Reserve's primary inflation measure. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate
Earnings Reports
Today: Coca-Cola, Toro Corp.
Monday: Quantum Corporation
MARKET BRIEF
Leading News
Nvidia's 'Golden Wave' Hits $157: AI Euphoria or Rational Exuberance?
Photo Credit: Maria Shalabeivia
Why it matters:
The chip giant's record high signals either the dawn of AI's most profitable era—or a reminder that markets can stay irrational longer than your portfolio can stay solvent.
Zoom Out:
Nvidia (NVDA) touched $156.99 in premarket trading Thursday, pushing its market cap past $3.8 trillion and leaving April's $86.62 DeepSeek-induced panic in the digital dust. The 81% rebound vindicates patient investors who recognized that China's AI breakthrough actually validated Nvidia's chips rather than threatened them.
Loop Capital's audacious $250 price target—implying another 60% upside—rests on analyst Ananda Baruah's forecast of a "Golden Wave" of enterprise AI adoption. Translation: Corporate America is finally moving beyond ChatGPT demos to deploying AI that actually moves needles on income statements.
The behavioral finance lesson here is textbook: Yesterday's existential threat becomes today's growth catalyst when investors realize DeepSeek's success required Nvidia's banned chips, underscoring the company's moat.
Key Insights:
Valuation reality check: At 30x forward earnings, NVDA trades below its 40x average—reasonable for a company growing revenue 200%+ annually
Competitive positioning: DeepSeek's reliance on smuggled H100s paradoxically proves Nvidia's technological superiority over AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC)
Market mechanics: The Nasdaq's 0.3% rally alongside NVDA suggests broad-based AI optimism, not single-stock mania
Market Pulse:
"We're entering the next Golden Wave of Gen AI adoption," Baruah declared, echoing the measured confidence of investors who've learned to separate signal from noise.
Bull’s Take:
Nvidia's monopoly-like pricing power in AI chips justifies premium valuations—just don't bet the ranch on any single semiconductor stock, no matter how golden the wave appears.
Headlines
Blackstone deepens CRE bet with $2 billion loan purchase from Atlantic Union (link)
Meta Wins Key AI Copyright Cases as Talent War Escalates (link)
Microsoft nuke power deal for Three Mile Island appears to be ahead of schedule (link)
Apple Overhauls EU App Store to Dodge €500M Fine (link)
Nike plans to reduce China production to soften US tariff blow, shares jump (link)
Salesforce AI Handles Up to Half of Its Workload (link)
CRYPTO
Fear & Greed
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On the Socials
*Hat-tip to dougboneparth