📈 Palantir's $10B Army Deal

Good morning.

⚡ The Fast Five → Apple Builds ChatGPT Rival Team, Nvidia Regains Some China Access, Meta Sells Data Centers for AI, Berkshire Operating Earnings Drop 4%, Darktrace Plans $200M US Expansion

🔎 Market Trends → US stocks slump on latest tariffs, soft jobs data; US Futures Hold Gains at Record Highs

🚨 Start Your Day with Market Movers: Opening Bell LIVE on FinTech.tv from 9-10AM EST

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Monday, August 4, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Futures Flat as Tariff Jitters and Weak Jobs Data Test Market’s Resolve

The S&P 500 dropped 2.4% last week—its worst stretch since May. The Dow sank 2.9%, while the Nasdaq slid 2.2% as selling pressure intensified into month-end.

The Big Picture:

Markets are entering August under a cloud of uncertainty. The July jobs report—weaker than expected—suggests economic momentum may be cooling. Combine that with President Trump’s newly modified tariffs (10%–41%), and investors are left questioning how much strain the economy can absorb.

The Fed held rates steady for the fifth straight meeting, dimming hopes for a September cut. Without monetary easing, equities face a tougher climb, especially as tariffs feed inflation fears.

Historically, August is a soft month for stocks—the worst for the Dow and nearly as bad for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. The seasonality backdrop isn’t helping sentiment.

Market Movers:

• Tariff storm intensifies: The executive order targets dozens of trading partners—from Syria to Taiwan—heightening risks to global trade and corporate margins.

• Labor market signals caution: A weaker jobs print suggests demand is slowing, potentially pressuring earnings in consumer-driven sectors.

• Historical headwinds: With August’s track record, volatility is the base case—investors should expect choppier sessions ahead.

What They’re Saying:

“The combination of rising tariffs and a softening labor market is a cocktail for uncertainty. Investors should be braced for more volatility as we move deeper into the third quarter.”— Market strategist, via CNBC

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• There are no events scheduled for today.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Palantir Technologies, Tyson Foods, Hims & Hers Health

• Tomorrow: Pfizer, Marriott, Yum! Brands, BP (British Petroleum), Caterpillar, Aflac, AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), Super Micro Computer (Supermicro)

MARKET BRIEF
Leading News

Palantir's $10B Army Deal: AI Gold Rush or Valuation Trap?

Why it matters:

The data-analytics darling just landed its biggest government contract yet, but trading at 660x earnings has even AI bulls questioning if the party's gone too far.

Zoom Out:

Palantir (PLTR) embodies everything exhilarating—and terrifying—about today's AI mania. The company's $10 billion Army contract over ten years represents a tectonic shift from fragmented deals to enterprise-wide dominance, essentially making Palantir the Pentagon's go-to data brain.

Yet here's the behavioral finance reality check: When retail investors prioritize "mission over valuation" (as D.A. Davidson notes), we're witnessing classic momentum psychology. Q2 earnings today will test whether $934-938 million projected revenue can justify a stock that's doubled this year.

The fundamentals tell two stories. Commercial revenue surged 71% while government contracts grew 45%—impressive by any measure. But at current multiples, Palantir needs to execute flawlessly for years to grow into its valuation.

Key Insights:

• Government moats are real: Defense contracts create switching costs that would make Warren Buffett smile—once you're managing classified data workflows, competitors need not apply

• Commercial acceleration matters most: The 68% U.S. commercial growth guidance suggests Palantir is cracking the enterprise code beyond government walls

• Options traders expect an 11.95% earnings move—historically, such volatility expectations often exceed actual results

Market Pulse:

"We are in the middle of a tectonic shift in the adoption of our software" —CEO Alex Karp, channeling the kind of transformational confidence that either precedes great fortunes or spectacular crashes.

Bull’s Take:

Palantir sits at the intersection of two unstoppable forces: government AI spending and enterprise digital transformation. For patient investors willing to stomach the volatility, today's nosebleed valuation could look prescient in five years—assuming the execution matches the ambition.

Headlines

• Apple Forms AI Team to Build ChatGPT Rival (link)

• Nvidia’s set to regain some China access. (link)

• Meta to divest $2bn in data centre assets for AI funding (link)

• Berkshire Hathaway operating earnings dip 4% (link)

• Amphenol Nears Deal to Buy CommScope’s Broadband Unit (link)

• Darktrace Plans $200M US Investment to Hit $1 Billion Revenue (link)

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed

Headlines

• Bitcoin Tumbles Under $114K While Trump Media’s Bold BTC Bet Fuels Market Speculation (link)

• ‘Chokepoint 3.0’ Has Arrived? a16z Warns of Anti-Crypto Bank Tactics (link)

• Ethereum turns 10: From scrappy experiment to Wall Street’s invisible backbone (link)