📈 Palantir Soars 170%—Now What?

Good Morning…

Palantir just proved that in today's AI arms race, you can simultaneously crush earnings by 63% and trade at a valuation that would make a dot-com bubble investor blush—welcome to the brave new world where fundamentals and price discovery have filed for separation.

🔎 Market Trends → S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher on Amazon-OpenAI deal; Fed path forward grows murky

🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → [WATCH] U.S.-China Trade Truce: Analyzing the Impact of Trump and Xi’s Meeting

And now…

⏱️ Your daily briefing for Tuesday, November 4, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Megacap AI Keeps the Rally Alive

The Nasdaq climbed +0.46% to 23,834.72 and the S&P 500 added +0.17% to 6,851.97. The Dow slipped −0.48% to 47,336.68 as investors piled back into AI bellwethers.

The Big Picture:

The AI trade isn’t cooling — it’s compounding.

Enthusiasm across hyperscalers continued to set the tone for November. Amazon (AMZN) hit a record close after striking a deal with OpenAI, boosting the tech complex even as futures turned modestly lower Monday night.

More than 80% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten consensus, per FactSet — a reminder that fundamentals remain firm under the surface. But the rally is getting more selective. While the “Magnificent Seven” no longer move in lockstep, their capex arms race — particularly around AI infrastructure — continues to fuel earnings and sentiment.

Commodities stayed calm in the background. Oil hovered near recent lows as supply remained steady and demand signals softened slightly — a hidden tailwind for corporate margins heading into year-end.

The market’s biggest challenge isn’t earnings; it’s breadth. More than 300 S&P stocks finished Monday in the red, reminding investors that leadership is top-heavy. But historically, narrow rallies often precede broader participation — especially when revenue growth remains intact.

Market Movers:

• Palantir (PLTR)
  Volatile after hours, but still posted a 52% surge in government sales and beat Q3 expectations. Strong AI-platform momentum suggests this “picks-and-shovels” play remains a favored way to own the AI wave.

• Clorox (CLX)
  Up >4% after beating on earnings and revenue, reaffirming guidance. Cost discipline + stable demand make it an underrated defensive ballast.

• Vertex Pharma (VRTX)
  Down ~4% after mixed Q3 results. Revenue topped views, but weaker EPS spooked fast-money traders — a reminder that even high-quality biotechs can get repriced on margin pressure.

What They’re Saying:

“Stick with the freight train that is megacap tech,” said Goldman’s Tony Pasquariello, who expects Fed cuts + strong capex to keep powering returns — though he acknowledges risk-reward is tightening.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

There are no events scheduled for today.

Earnings Reports

• Today: Advanced Micro, Shopify, Uber, Arista Networks, Amgen, Eaton, Pfizer, Spotify, Ferrari, BP, Itau Unibanco, Marriott, Apollo Global

• Tomorrow: Toyota, Novo Nordisk, AppLovin, McDonald’s, Qualcomm, Arm, Robinhood, DoorDash, McKesson, CRH, Emerson

MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News 

Palantir's AI Juggernaut Crushes Estimates—But Is the 400x Price Tag Worth It?

Why it matters:

Palantir (PLTR) just delivered a 63% revenue surge and guidance that trounced Wall Street, proving the AI gold rush is real—but at $490 billion in market cap and a forward P/E north of 400x, this isn't your grandfather's value play.

Zoom Out:

The numbers tell a spectacular story. Q3 revenue hit $1.18 billion (vs. $1.09 billion expected), with adjusted EPS of $0.21 crushing the $0.17 consensus. Even more impressive: U.S. commercial revenue exploded 121% year-over-year to $397 million, signaling that CEO Alex Karp's bet on enterprise AI adoption is paying off in spectacular fashion.

The company raised full-year revenue guidance to $4.4 billion and bumped free cash flow expectations to $1.9-2.1 billion. That's not just beating—it's obliterating the skeptics who worried the government shutdown would derail momentum.

But here's the rub: The stock has rocketed 170%+ this year to all-time highs near $200, pricing in perfection that would make even the most optimistic venture capitalist blush. The valuation disconnect from fundamentals is now a chasm.

Key Insights:

• The commercial acceleration is genuine: Total contract value for U.S. commercial deals more than quadrupled to $1.31 billion, with partnerships announced with Snowflake, Lumen, and Nvidia validating the AI infrastructure thesis.

• Retail investors are driving the mania: Karp acknowledged that Palantir has enabled retail investors to achieve "rates of return previously limited to the most successful venture capitalists"—a statement that should make disciplined investors nervous about crowded positioning.

• The margin story justifies some premium: Using Palantir's preferred "rule-of-40" metric (revenue growth + margins), the company scored 94%, demonstrating operational leverage that few software firms can match.

Market Pulse:

"The strong companies are going to get much stronger, and the people pretending they're doing stuff are going to disappear very quickly," Karp told CNBC—a characteristically blunt assessment of the AI shakeout ahead.

Bull’s Take:

If you believe AI is reshaping enterprise software as profoundly as cloud did a decade ago, Palantir's execution gives you permission to hold through volatility. Just don't confuse a great company with a great stock at any price—consider building positions on inevitable pullbacks rather than chasing momentum at nosebleed valuations.

Market Stories of Note

OpenAI Breaks Free: $38B AWS Deal Signals Power Shift:

OpenAI just inked a $38 billion, seven-year cloud deal with Amazon Web Services, ending Microsoft's monopoly on its infrastructure and sending Amazon stock to record highs. The agreement validates AWS in the AI infrastructure race while giving OpenAI the diversification it needs before an eventual IPO. For investors, this confirms that AI's infrastructure buildout is real and expensive—creating genuine opportunities in picks-and-shovels plays like Amazon and Nvidia, even if the ultimate winners remain uncertain.

Kimberly-Clark Bets $49B on Tylenol's Comeback:

Kimberly-Clark is acquiring Kenvue for $48.7 billion, uniting Huggies with Band-Aid and Tylenol to create a $32 billion consumer health powerhouse—despite Trump administration scrutiny of acetaminophen that sent Kenvue tumbling 35% since its J&J spinoff. The market's verdict was swift and split: Kenvue soared 17% while Kimberly-Clark cratered 14%, suggesting Wall Street views this as a distressed rescue rather than a strategic merger. With $2.1 billion in synergies and ten billion-dollar brands, this is either a shrewd contrarian play on undervalued quality—or a very expensive wager that political headwinds fade faster than household brand loyalty erodes.

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed 

Headlines

• Bitcoin Slides Below $106K as Cryptos Tumble, Nearing October Crash Lows (link)

• Chainlink Drops 10% Amid Crypto Selloff; New Rewards Program Unveiled (link)

• Ripple’s crypto investments hit $4B with acquisition of wallet tech firm Palisade (link)