- Bull Street
- Posts
- 📈 Rocket's $1.75B Redfin Grab
📈 Rocket's $1.75B Redfin Grab
Tesla plunges 15%, Hinge Health files for IPO, Asana stock plummets 25%, Oracle shares turn lower on revenue miss, Redfin stock spikes after mortgage giant Rocket acquisition
Evelio Silvera
March 11, 2025
Good morning.
⚡ The Fast Five → Tesla plunges 15%, Hinge Health files for IPO, Asana stock plummets 25%, Oracle shares turn lower on revenue miss, Redfin stock spikes after mortgage giant Rocket acquisition
🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street ends sharply lower as recession fears loom; US Futures Extend Losses Amid Recession Fears
And now…
⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Tuesday, March 11, 2025:
MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open
As of market close 03/10/2025.
Pre-Market
| 
|
Fear & Greed
Markets in Review
Markets Slide as Recession Worries Weigh on Tech
The Nasdaq tumbled 4% to 17,468.3, leading losses, while the S&P 500 fell 2.7% to 5,614.6 and the Dow dropped 2.1% to 41,911.7. Tech stocks were hit hardest, shedding 4.3%, while utilities and energy were the only sectors in the green.
The Big Picture:
Investors took a defensive stance after President Donald Trump didn’t rule out a possible recession in 2025, hinting at economic volatility ahead. His comments, paired with Goldman Sachs raising its 12-month recession probability to 20%, fueled concerns over trade tensions and inflationary pressures.
Treasury yields slid, reflecting a flight to safety as the 2-year yield fell 10.6 basis points to 3.90% and the 10-year yield dropped 9.3 basis points to 4.23%. Meanwhile, inflation expectations ticked higher in the short term, according to the New York Fed.
Oil prices softened, with WTI crude slipping 1.6% to $65.96 a barrel, while gold fell 0.8% to $2,891.50 per ounce as investors reassessed their risk appetite.
Market Movers:
Tesla (TSLA) nosedived 15%, the worst performer on the S&P 500, after UBS slashed its price target.
The entire "Magnificent 7" cohort—Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA)—closed lower.
Rocket (RKT) fell 15%, despite announcing a $1.75 billion acquisition of Redfin (RDFN), aimed at integrating real estate services into its home-lending business. Redfin shares skyrocketed 68%.
Best Buy (BBY) faces pressure, as new Trump administration tariffs on key trading partners could hit consumer electronics and home improvement retailers hardest, Wedbush said.
What They’re Saying:
"Trump’s stance signals a willingness to play economic hardball, using trade and fiscal levers even at the risk of short-term economic pain," Macquarie analysts noted.
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events
Today: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) Job Openings - 10:00am
Why You Should Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity
Earnings Reports
Today: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Kohl’s, Casey’s General Stores, First Watch, Wheels Up, United Natural Foods, Ciena, MINISO Group
Tomorrow: Adobe, Williams-Sonoma, American Eagle Outfitters, Arcos Dorados, Hello Group, Vivid Seats, Crown Castle, Lennar
MARKET BRIEF
Leading News
Rocket's Redfin Grab: The Quest for Real Estate's Holy Grail
Photo Credit: Stephen Brashear/Getty Images
Why it matters:
Rocket's $1.75 billion acquisition of Redfin represents a bold bet on the "one-stop shop" model for home transactions, potentially reducing friction costs that currently eat up ~10% of home values.
Zoom Out:
The housing transaction process has remained stubbornly fragmented for decades, forcing consumers to navigate a labyrinth of disconnected services. Rocket (RKT) aims to change this by combining its mortgage muscle with Redfin's (RDFN) brokerage platform.
This marriage comes amid a housing market still recovering from interest rate shocks, with 2024 home sales tumbling to 1995 levels. Yet the deal signals confidence that integration — not just survival — is the path forward.
Key Insights:
The valuation puzzle: At $12.50 per share, Rocket is paying more than double Redfin's pre-announcement price — a premium that sent Rocket shares tumbling 15%. This suggests investors believe Rocket may be overpaying for synergies that remain theoretical.
The Zillow factor: This move positions Rocket-Redfin in direct competition with Zillow's (Z) "housing super app" strategy. The race to become the Amazon of real estate is intensifying, with consolidation likely to accelerate.
Efficiency equation: The combined entity projects $140 million in cost savings by 2027, plus $60 million from pairing Redfin agents with Rocket's financing infrastructure — figures that will face intense scrutiny from Wall Street.
Market Pulse:
"It's really this idea of a one-stop shop ecosystem in real estate, which has kind of been this holy grail that companies have been searching for for years," says Mike DelPrete, real estate tech strategist at the University of Colorado Boulder.
Bull’s Take:
Smart consolidation in fragmented markets often creates lasting value. For patient investors, this deal represents a calculated wager on real estate's digital future rather than its interest rate-challenged present.
Headlines
Delta Stock Drops After Airline Cuts Sales, Profit Outlook (link)
Hinge Health files for IPO (link)
Tesla shares plunge 15%, suffering steepest drop in five years (link)
Novo Nordisk Shares Fall After Latest CagriSema Obesity Drug Trial Results (link)
Oracle shares turn lower as quarterly revenue miss overshadows cloud deals (link)
Asana CEO Dustin Moskovitz announces retirement, stock plummets 25% (link)
CRYPTO
Fear & Greed
Headlines
DAILY SHARE
On the Socials
*Hat-tip to litcapital