📈 StubHub's IPO Ticket to Billions

Good Morning…

While most investors were busy debating whether we're in a bubble or a bear market, StubHub quietly priced its IPO at $23.50 per share—proving that sometimes the smartest money is found in the least glamorous corners of the economy.

🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street ends lower ahead of Fed rate decision

🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → [WATCH] Navigating the Fed’s Rate Decision: What to Expect from Powell’s Press Conference

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Wednesday, September 17, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open 

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

Markets cool as investors await Fed’s next move — but the bull still has legs.

S&P 500 slipped 0.13% to 6,606.76, just off record highs.
Dow shed 125 points, and the Nasdaq eased 0.07% to 22,333.96.

The Big Picture:

Wall Street hit pause on Tuesday — not out of fear, but anticipation. With the Fed’s first rate cut since December set for tomorrow, traders booked profits from a historic run. Markets are reading this moment not as a pivot from strength, but a brief exhale before another leg higher.

Expectations are clear: a 25 basis-point cut is fully priced in. The real story will unfold during Powell’s press conference, where tone and guidance will either reinforce the rally or spark rotation.

Meanwhile, gold (XAU=) hit a fresh all-time high, and oil (CL=F) held firm above $90/barrel — signaling that while inflation isn’t dead, it's more bark than bite in the eyes of investors.

Market Movers:

• Tech Leaders Cool: Heavyweights Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) dropped 1.6% and 1.2%, respectively, as traders trimmed exposure ahead of the Fed. But pullbacks in leaders rarely mark the end of a bull — just time to reload.

• Citi Surges in Bank Rally: Wells Fargo reaffirmed Citi (C) as its “dominant #1 favorite,” citing scale, deregulation tailwinds, and revived capital markets. Target: $125, a 25% upside.

• TSMC Gets AI Love: Barclays boosted TSMC (TSM) target to $325, citing relentless AI chip demand. No real threat from Intel (INTC) or Samsung just yet.

What They’re Saying:

“The S&P 500 should be higher as monetary policy becomes more accommodative.”
— Josh Brown, Ritholtz Wealth Management.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Today: Federal Reserve - Federal Funds Rate - 2:00pm

  Why You Should Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future.

• Today: Federal Reserve - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Economic Projections - 2:00pm

  Why You Should Care: It's the primary tool the Fed uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors.

• Today: Federal Reserve - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Statement - 2:00pm

  Why You Should Care: It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

• Today: Federal Reserve - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Press Conference - 2:30pm

  Why You Should Care: It's among the primary methods the Fed uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

Earnings Reports

• Today: General Mills, Cracker Barrel, Nano Dimension

• Tomorrow: FedEx, Lennar Homes, Olive Garden / Darden Restaurants, Scholastic

MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News 

StubHub's IPO Tests Market's Appetite for Live Event Exposure

Why it matters:

The ticket marketplace's $8.6 billion debut marks another sign that capital markets are rewarding consumer platforms—even those with razor-thin margins and concert-dependent revenue streams.

Zoom Out:

StubHub priced its shares at $23.50, hitting the middle of its expected range and suggesting institutional investors found the valuation reasonable despite earlier delays. The company waited out Trump's April tariff volatility, a prudent move that highlights management's market timing discipline—a trait often overlooked but crucial for IPO success.

The timing looks strategic. Recent IPOs including Klarna (KLAR), Gemini, and Bullish (BLSH) have soared in their respective debuts, creating a favorable backdrop for consumer-facing platforms. This reflects broader investor confidence in companies with direct consumer relationships and network effects, though history suggests such enthusiasm can be fleeting.

Key Insights:

• Revenue trajectory remains solid: First-quarter revenue jumped 10% to $397.6 million, demonstrating post-pandemic recovery in live events continues. Operating income of $26.8 million shows the platform can generate profits when volume peaks—though the seasonal nature of entertainment spending creates inherent volatility.

• Valuation discipline: Originally seeking $16.5 billion, StubHub settled for $8.6 billion—a 48% haircut that suggests realistic pricing expectations after the ZIRP era ended. This pragmatic approach may actually benefit long-term shareholders by avoiding the typical post-IPO cliff.

• Platform moats matter: The company's network effects between buyers and sellers create switching costs that traditional competitors struggle to replicate. Like other successful marketplace models, StubHub benefits from liquidity begets liquidity—though regulatory scrutiny of ticket resale practices remains a persistent overhang.

Market Pulse:

"The IPO market's recent revival suggests investors are finally distinguishing between businesses with genuine network effects and those that merely benefited from easy money," notes one institutional investor who participated in the offering.

Bull’s Take:

StubHub's measured pricing and proven revenue model position it as a pure-play bet on Americans' return to live experiences—a secular trend backed by decades of data showing entertainment spending's resilience even during economic downturns.

Market Stories of Note

TikTok's U.S. Dance Gets Oracle as Lead Partner:

Trump's latest deadline extension hands Oracle (ORCL) and Silver Lake roughly 80% ownership of TikTok's U.S. operations—transforming a geopolitical headache into a potentially lucrative tech infrastructure play. The "framework deal" demonstrates how patient capital and strategic positioning can turn regulatory uncertainty into acquisition opportunity, particularly for companies like Oracle that already provide the platform's cloud backbone. Smart investors should note that while this marks the fourth deadline extension, the inclusion of blue-chip names like Andreessen Horowitz suggests the deal has finally reached critical mass—creating a rare chance to own a piece of America's most addictive social media platform at what may prove to be distressed prices.

Elliott's $2B Workday Bet Signals AI Payroll Revolution:

Elliott Management's $2 billion stake in Workday (WDAY) represents more than just capital allocation—it's a sophisticated wager that enterprise software companies with sticky customer relationships can successfully monetize the AI arms race without destroying their margins. The timing coincides perfectly with Workday's $1.1 billion acquisition of AI firm Sana, suggesting Elliott sees value in companies bold enough to buy rather than build their way into artificial intelligence capabilities. For patient investors, this validates the thesis that mature SaaS platforms with entrenched user bases may offer the safest entry point into AI's transformative potential—particularly when seasoned activists like Elliott are willing to stake billions on management's multi-year vision.

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CRYPTO
Fear & Greed 

Headlines

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