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- 📈 Tesla's Tax Credit Rush
📈 Tesla's Tax Credit Rush
The real question: Can Musk's EV empire sustain momentum now that the $7,500 taxpayer subsidy has vanished?
Evelio Silvera
October 03, 2025
Good Morning…
Tesla just pulled off what every retailer dreams of before a sale ends—a stampede through the checkout line—but the applause from Wall Street lasted about as long as a standing ovation at a timeshare presentation.
🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street closes with records as tech support offsets labor, shutdown uncertainties
🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → [WATCH] The Future of Driving: Inside Tensor’s Groundbreaking Luxury Robocar
And now…
⏱️ Your daily briefing for Friday, October 3, 2025:
MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open
As of market close 10/02/2025.
Pre-Market
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Fear & Greed
Markets in Review
Shutdown? The Tape Shrugs. New highs anyway.
S&P 500 +0.06% to 6,715.35 (record). Nasdaq +0.39% to 22,844.05 (record). Dow +0.17% to 46,519.72.
The Big Picture:
Wall Street treated Washington’s standoff like static. Shutdowns rarely dent cash flows; traders are betting this one is short and shallow.
Leadership broadened just enough. Nvidia (NVDA) notched a fresh high as AI deal flow stayed hot, while health care steadied the tape—classic defensive growth showing up when policy risk rises.
Macro risk isn’t gone. Treasury’s Scott Bessent warned GDP could “see a hit.” Data are going dark during the shutdown, which paradoxically nudges the Fed toward an October cut if growth cools and inflation behaves. Oil stayed rangebound, a quiet tailwind for margins unless it’s signaling softer demand.
Market Movers:
NVDA climbed as investors kept funding the compute buildout; the market still pays for scarce capacity and ecosystem control.
Fair Isaac (FICO) surged after a pricing shakeup that may bypass bureaus—monetizing the toll road more directly.
Target (TGT) sentiment slipped on execution concerns; multiple resets mean show-me mode until traffic and mix improve.
Fermi America cooled post-IPO—typical after an upsized debut; fundamentals > first-day fireworks.
What They’re Saying:
“The shutdown seems to be playing out as expected… Markets will tolerate this for a few days; trimming agencies may be long-term positive but a short-term disruption.” — Brian Mulberry, Zacks Investment Management
WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events
Today’s events are scheduled but may be effected by the government shutdown
Today: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Average Hourly Earnings m/m - Tentative
Why You Should Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
Today: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Non-Farm Employment Change - Tentative
Why You Should Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
Today: Bureau of Labor Statistics - Unemployment Rate - Tentative
Why You Should Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions. Unemployment is also a major consideration for those steering the country's monetary policy;
Today: Institute for Supply Management - ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - 10:00am
Why You Should Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy;
Earnings Reports
Today: There are no noteworthy companies for today.
Monday: Constellation Brands, Toro
MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News
Tesla's Tax Credit Rush: When Deliveries Beat, But the Real Story's Under the Hood
Photo Credit: Austin Ramsey
Why it matters:
Tesla (TSLA) posted 497,099 Q3 deliveries—crushing the 447,600 consensus—but the 7% year-over-year gain masks a tactical scramble before federal EV credits vanished Sept. 30.
Zoom Out:
When subsidies die, behavior gets interesting. Tesla's delivery beat wasn't operational excellence—it was panic buying ahead of the $7,500 tax credit expiration. Think of it as a sugar rush before the diet starts.
Production actually fell to 447,450 units from 469,796 last year, a troubling divergence that suggests inventory drawdown rather than manufacturing momentum. That's like reporting strong restaurant sales while your kitchen produces fewer meals.
The stock—up 40% in Q3 and 14% year-to-date—sold off Thursday despite the beat. Smart money knows the difference between a one-time pull-forward and sustainable growth trajectory.
Key Insights:
Europe's Musk Problem: Continuing sales weakness overseas reflects consumer backlash against Elon's political theatrics plus stiff competition from Volkswagen and BYD. Brand equity matters, and controversial CEOs are a hidden volatility tax on valuations.
The Energy Ace in the Hole: Tesla deployed 12.5 GWh of battery storage—up from 9.6 GWh last quarter. Megapacks and Megablocks represent a high-margin sleeper business powering data centers (including Musk's xAI). Think recurring revenue with 30%+ margins versus low-teens auto margins.
Post-Credit Reality Check: With tax credits extinct, Q4 demand becomes the acid test. Ford's EVs jumped 30.2% in Q3, signaling competition isn't napping. Tesla's moat narrows when price advantages evaporate.
Market Pulse:
"U.S. EV tax credit ending will be long-term win for Tesla" —Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management
Bull’s Take:
Look past the delivery headline—Tesla's energy storage and production efficiency will separate temporary winners from durable compounders. Hold the stock, but temper expectations until we see organic Q4 demand.
Market Stories of Note
OpenAI Hits $500 Billion - When Unicorns Become Leviathans:
OpenAI's $500 billion valuation from a secondary share sale makes it the world's most valuable startup—eclipsing SpaceX and ByteDance—signaling that investors are betting astronomical sums on AI's ability to reshape the global economy. The ChatGPT maker remains unprofitable while burning billions on infrastructure like its Texas data center complex, yet deep-pocketed backers including SoftBank, T. Rowe Price, and UAE's MGX are wagering that generative AI will deliver "unprecedented economic growth" rather than a spectacular bubble. For investors watching from the sidelines, this valuation milestone offers a sobering reminder: the distance between visionary breakthrough and overhyped wreckage often becomes clear only in hindsight—so tread carefully with AI exposure until profits materialize alongside the promises.
Microsoft's $33 Billion Neocloud Bet: Renting the AI Revolution:
Microsoft has committed over $33 billion to neocloud providers including Nebius, CoreWeave, and Lambda—with a flagship $19.4 billion Nebius deal securing access to more than 100,000 of Nvidia's cutting-edge GB300 chips, signaling that even tech titans would rather rent computing power than wait years to build their own AI infrastructure. The strategy allows Microsoft to categorize expenses as operational rather than capital costs while freeing up its own data centers for revenue-generating services like GitHub Copilot, a financial engineering move that keeps Wall Street analysts happy while the company races to satisfy insatiable AI demand. For investors watching this land grab unfold, the takeaway is clear: the picks-and-shovels play in AI infrastructure remains red-hot, and the neoclouds supplying GPU firepower to hyperscalers may prove more profitable than many AI application companies burning cash on model training.
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