📈 Trump Admin Eyes Intel Stake

Good Morning…

Sometimes the most revealing market moves happen not in earnings reports or Fed speeches, but in the murky space where national security meets stock prices.

Intel's 7% surge this week offers a masterclass in how geopolitical chess moves can instantly transform a struggling tech giant into what amounts to a government-backed utility—complete with all the promise and peril that implies.

🔎 Market Trends → Wall Street ends flat, but S&P 500 hits another closing high

🖥️ Market Movers from Fintech.tv → Market Movements: Analyzing the Impact of Inflation and Fed Rate Cuts

And now…

⏱️ Your 5-minute briefing for Friday, August 15, 2025:

MARKET BRIEF
Before the Open 

Pre-Market

Fear & Greed

Markets in Review

S&P 500 Holds the High Ground

The S&P 500 slipped 0.1% in futures trading, the Nasdaq 100 eased 0.2%, and the Dow gained 0.3% (+131 pts). After-hours moves were driven more by company headlines than macro fears.

The Big Picture:

The benchmark S&P 500 notched another all-time high Thursday—its third in a row—despite hotter-than-expected producer prices. That’s resilience in action.

UnitedHealth (UNH) stole the spotlight, surging over 9% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) and Michael Burry’s Scion Asset Management disclosed new stakes. Meanwhile, Intel (INTC) popped on reports the Trump administration is in talks to take a government stake to bolster domestic chip manufacturing.

Commodities stayed tame—oil hovering near recent averages—giving equities more breathing room. Small caps shined, with the Russell 2000 up 3.6% week-to-date, a sign risk appetite is broadening.

Market Movers:

• Winners: UnitedHealth (+9% intraday, +8% after hours) rode a confidence wave from high-profile investors. Intel (+7% regular, +4% postmarket) saw its rally supercharged by national-interest buzz.

• Losers: Applied Materials (AMAT) sank 11% after weak forward guidance overshadowed strong earnings—reminder that in tech, future orders matter more than past performance.

• IPO Heat Check: Circle Internet Group (CRCL) priced its 10M-share offering at $130; despite a 12% weekly pullback, it’s still up ~350% since its June debut.

What They’re Saying:

“One data point isn’t enough to change the inflation trajectory thesis… We see this as transitory,” — Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors.

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING
Events

• Today: Census Bureau - Core Retail Sales Ex Autos m/m; Retail Sales m/m - 8:30am

  Why You Should Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity

• Today: University of Michigan (UoM) - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - 10:00am

  Why You Should Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity

• Today: University of Michigan (UoM) - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 10:00am

  Why You Should Care: Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise

Earnings Reports

• Today: Flowers Foods, New Fortress Energy, Avidity Biosciences

• Monday: Palo Alto Networks, HIVE Digital Technologies

MARKET INSIGHTS
Leading News 

Trump Administration Eyes Intel Stake—Signal or Noise?

Why it matters:

The government taking equity stakes in critical tech companies marks a dramatic shift in industrial policy, potentially creating a new investment playbook for "America First" capitalism.

Zoom Out:

Intel's 7% jump following reports of Trump administration discussions represents classic "whisper premium" trading—investors betting on policy largesse rather than operational improvement. The chipmaker's transformation from Silicon Valley royalty to government ward candidate tells a broader story about America's semiconductor sovereignty.

As the only U.S. company capable of manufacturing cutting-edge chips domestically, Intel has become too strategically important to fail, even as it stumbles in AI and foundry businesses. History suggests government partnerships can revive struggling tech champions—think of how Pentagon funding helped create the internet.

The timing isn't coincidental: CEO Lip-Bu Tan's White House visit came after Trump questioned his China ties, showing how geopolitical concerns now drive tech investment decisions as much as profit margins.

Key Insights:

• Follow the CHIPS Money: The government stake would fund Intel's stalled Ohio factories, turning taxpayer dollars into equity upside—a smarter structure than pure subsidies that historically disappear into corporate overhead.

• Strategic Precedent Alert: Similar deals with MP Materials (defense) and chip licensing agreements with AMD/NVIDIA suggest this isn't one-off desperation but systematic industrial policy reshaping how Washington backs winners.

• Foundry Reality Check: Intel's manufacturing arm still lacks major customers, making government backing crucial for attracting the scale needed to compete with TSMC's formidable lead.

Market Pulse:

"Discussion about hypothetical deals should be regarded as speculation unless officially announced," warned the White House—classic bureaucratic hedge-speak that still leaves the door wide open.

Bull’s Take:

Smart money recognizes that Intel (INTC) represents America's best bet for semiconductor independence, making government partnership inevitable rather than surprising. For patient investors, this validates the national security premium built into domestic chip manufacturing—even if execution remains the trillion-dollar question.

Market Stories of Note

AMAT's Earnings Stumble Reveals The China Playbook:

Applied Materials' earnings turbulence matters because it showcases how semiconductor equipment giants are adapting to the new reality where geopolitical risk has become a line item in quarterly guidance. Despite beating estimates with $7.3 billion revenue and $2.48 EPS, the company's weak forward guidance sent shares tumbling 10%—revealing that in today's chip wars, uncertainty itself has become the enemy of valuation multiples. The silver lining lies in Applied Materials' strategic pivot toward domestic manufacturing through partnerships like Apple's $100 billion U.S. expansion, positioning patient investors for the inevitable reshoring windfall as trade tensions force chip production back to American soil.

Buffett's Healthcare Contrarian Play: Buying UnitedHealth's Pain:

Berkshire Hathaway's $1.6 billion bet on beleaguered UnitedHealth matters because it demonstrates the Oracle of Omaha's time-tested strategy of shopping when others are fleeing—the insurance giant's 50% year-to-date plunge creating exactly the kind of blood-in-the-streets opportunity Buffett has feasted on for decades. The position reveals how regulatory scrutiny and public healthcare outrage have created a rare chance to own America's largest private insurer at distressed valuations, despite its dominant market position and durable competitive moats remaining largely intact. For patient capital allocators, Berkshire's contrarian entry at maximum pessimism signals that even unpopular but essential businesses eventually reward investors who can stomach the temporary reputational damage.

CRYPTO
Fear & Greed 

Headlines

• Bitcoin Plunges Below $118K as Inflation Jitters and $1B Liquidations Shake Markets (link)

• Onchain development platform launching on Base taps Microsoft AI tools, like OpenAI, to enable anyone to deploy an app (link)

• Crypto exchange Gemini launches wallet and onchain dashboard for trading and investing (link)